4.10: OLBG MARES HURDLE
A relatively new race where the only real trends to emerge have been that if Quevega turned up, she won and you may as well just hand the winners medal and cheque to Willie Mullins!!
Willie once more has the favourite and outstanding candidate in the shape of VROUM VROUM MAG and, whilst she is playable at even money, I do like a bit more meat on my punting bones. One thing I have noticed is that despite Quevega winning at short odds, those in behind her in 2nd or 3rd have tended to be at very decent prices – anywhere from 13/2 up to 66/1. For that reason, I’ve had a look at the w/o VVM market and come up with…
POLLY PEACHUM @ 3/1 (15/2 outright)
THE GOVANESS @ 6/1 (16/1)
FLUTE BOWL @ 14/1 e/w (66/1)
4.50: NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (amateur riders)
Not a race I want to be heavily invested in to be honest but we are looking for something that has had a top 5 finish last time out (preferably top 4 in one of last 2 starts), is aged 7 or 8 and placed in a 3m+ chase previously. At least 3 runs over fences and a break of 17 days or more also seems ideal.
Given all that I’ve found two to get involved with but only for minor money…
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR @ 8/1 e/w
PONT ALEXANDRE @ 10/1 e/w
5.30: NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE
Another tricky one to finish the first day, made all the more so by the rejigging of the conditions and the addition later in the week of another chase run over much the same distance. 10 from 11 winners were top 3 lto, 9/11 aged 6 or 7, 7/11 had a distance (2m4f) win to their name.
Undeterred I’ve found three at big enough prices that seem to fit the bill. I’ve taken slightly shorter odds with betfair sportsbook as they seem to be the only firm going 5 places (4 elsewhere)…
DOMESDAY BOOK @ 25/1 e/w (33/1 elsewhere)
FOURTH ACT @ 28/1 e/w (33/1 elsewhere)
AMORE ALATO @ 20/1 e/w
And that wraps up that little lot for day One. Hope you enjoyed it even if you think I’m stark raving mad and disagree with me on almost every point!! I think there must be some money to come back at some point from a few of those myself though
Have a great Festival